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CLT home appreciation about the same as inflation over long-term

By Dave Yochum.  David Blitzer, the managing director and chair of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says the Charlotte housing market will continue to benefit from net in-migration.

DAVID BLITZER

“You are picking up a fair amount of higher-end employment,” he said in an exclusive interview with Business Today. It likely means slow but steady gains in the price tag of executive and luxury housing.

More moderately priced homes will increase in value faster, according to Pat Riley, CEO of Allen Tate Cos. “The majority of above-average price appreciation in the region is homes under $500,000,” he said.

Blitzer is nationally known for his commentary on S&P’s monthly report on home prices around the country. The 20-city US index, which includes Charlotte, shows home prices are up 6.5 percent year over year.

The US inflation rate June over June was 2.9 percent. Home prices in some markets are climbing two and three times faster than inflation, Blitzzer said.

“The year-over-year increases in the Index have topped 5 percent every month since August 2016. Unlike the boom-bust period surrounding the financial crisis, price gains are consistent across the 20 cities…the range of the largest to smallest price change is 10 percentage points compared to a 20 percentage point range since 2001, and a 25 percentage point range between 2006 and 2009,” Blitzer said.

What he’s saying is that prices are rising consistently, especially in the Charlotte market.

Incredible as it may seem in light of recent gains, Charlotte home prices are up only slightly more than inflation from just before the financial crisis of 2006-2007 to 2018.

According to Case-Schiller historic data, home prices rose 24.9 percent over the past 12 years, compared to the Consumer Price Index, which rose 24.4 percent.

PAT RILEY

“Everyone says inflation is so low, but when you accumulate it over 10-12 years, it’s a real number,” Blitzer said. “To say we’re back to where we were in 2000-2005, that probably makes sense.”

On the economic development side, it’s all good.

Home prices here are still lower than in much of the rest of the country—and where we’re considerably higher, we are still better off in terms of attracting newcomers.

“Yes, the greater the price appreciation, the less competitive our region becomes from an economic development standpoint. However, our competition for economic development is also experiencing similar escalation, and we have a lower price point to begin with,” says Riley.

Our region excels in the areas of lower property taxes and cost of living, as compared to other regions. We have not lost a corporate move because of housing prices, Riley says.

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